Saturday, March 12, 2016

Blog #12: TWO REFLECTIONS ON THE 2016 RACE

Who Speaks for the Powerless?

            Most political buffs have concluded that the best predictor of a Trump supporter would be a middle aged white man who hasn’t graduated from college.  But the Rand Corporation has found an even more precise way to predict a Trump supporter – voters who agree with the statement, “People like me don’t have any say about what the government does,” are most likely to be Trump supporters.  Feelings of being powerless and without a voice are “much better predictors of Trump support than age, race, college attainment, income, attitudes toward Muslims, illegal immigrants, or Hispanic identity.” 
            Rand’s conclusions turn Democrats' self-image on its head.  Democrats have traditionally aspired to give voice to the voiceless and power to the powerless.  That formula worked fine for decades when the powerless were poor, black or Hispanic.  But where is the Democratic Party when those who feel they have no political voice are middle aged white men?  Where is the Democratic program for a generation of formerly privileged white men who no longer feel privileged?  Who speaks for them?  Trump. 

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Recapturing  Innocence

             There was, to me, a defining moment in the Michigan debate between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.  Hillary blasted Bernie in Michigan for voting against saving the auto industry.  Bernie came back with his usual rant about Hillary voting to bail out Wall Street.  At the time, it seemed like a lame attempt by Bernie to divert our attention away from a major mistake.
            After two days of cable commentary, I finally got the story straight.  Bernie (and Hillary) had, in fact, voted for a pure stand-alone bill which funded the auto industry bailout.  But when that failed, the Senate was presented with an up or down vote on a bill which combined about $380 billion to stabilize Wall Street (the TARP bailout) with about $80 billion to support restructuring the auto industry.  Sanders voted no, and Clinton voted yes.  The combined bill passed and between two and four million jobs were saved. 
            This vote is a metaphor for the mind of each of the candidates.  Bernie remained pure.  He represents the innocence of first love; Hillary stands for married love.  When faced by the choice of all or nothing, Hillary chose something.  Call it opportunism, or call it taking opportunity when it knocks, but it certainly explains why in the 25 years in the House and Senate only three bills have Bernie’s name on them and two are renaming Post Offices.